Economics focus

摘要

Two days of heavy rain failed to dampen the spirits of most of the central bankers and economists who met last week in the Rocky mountain resort of Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for the annual symposium of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, one of the biggest jamborees on their calendar. Now that America's economy is picking up strongly, participants might be forgiven for feeling light-headed, especially at over 6,000 feet. Even allowing for this, the mood was far too self-congratulatory. This year's official theme was "Monetary Policy and Uncertainty". When setting interest rates, central bankers face huge uncertainty about the future path of the economy and its potential rate of growth. Yet they are still 100% sure about one thing: the best way to deliver economic and financial stability is to focus on keeping inflation low. Central bankers' success in reducing inflation over the past decade therefore allows them to pat each other on the back. However, several of the papers presented at this year's symposium questioned whether monetary policy really has been that good-or just lucky.