The rational response to terrorism

摘要

Carried out by fanatics intending to kill, maim and spread fear, suicide-terrorism is not an obvious subject for economic analysis. The greatest costs are paid in blood, not mere money. Yet terrorists aim not only to kill, but also to disrupt ordinary life. How far do they succeed? Lots of pundits try to gauge the public mood after an attack, and it often seems that one man's guess is as good as another's. Are the citizenry defiant, resigned or intimidated? Here, economists can help, for it is their instinct to look at what people do, not what they say; to trust numbers, not anecdotes; and to look for clues in the inflections of mass behaviour, not the hasty reflections of the mass media. Gary Becker, a Nobel laureate at the University of Chicago, is well known for applying economic methods to realms of life that most of his colleagues consider off limits. Terrorism is one such area. In a working paper circulated last year, he and Yona Rubinstein, of Tel Aviv University, examine how the general public responds to the threat posed by suicide-bombers.