Dynastic bull

摘要

Frenzied markets often give rise to grandiose claims about tectonic shifts in the economic order. Think of "Dow 36,000", a book published in 1999 just before the dotcom bubble burst, arguing that the principles of stock valuation had fundamentally changed. The recent leap in China's stockmarket has prompted similar theorising. When shares soared by 20% in two weeks, analysts at Cinda Securities, a broker, found the root cause in 3,500 years of Chinese imperial history. The pattern of chaos leading to the establishment of a new dynasty, followed by the consolida- tion of power and, finally, a flowering of prosperity, was being repeated. "A bull market is inevitable," they concluded.