WESTMINSTER was agog. On May 31st, eight days before Britain's general election, the Times splashed on YouGov's forecast of a hung parliament. Other pollsters were predicting an average lead of eight percentage points for the incumbent Conservatives. Party grandees, sure that Theresa May, the prime minister, would secure a big majority, rubbished the predic-tion-as did officials from the opposition Labour Party, convinced they were heading for defeat. Jim Messina, a former campaign manager for Barack Obama who flew in to advise the Conservatives, tweeted that he had "spent the day laughing at yet another stupid poll".
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