Free exchange | It's a bot time

摘要

THE YEAR is 2021, and honestly there ought to be more robots. It was a decade ago that two scholars of technology, Erik Bryn-jolfsson and Andrew McAfee, published "Race Against the Machine", an influential book that marked the start of a fierce debate between optimists and pessimists about technological change. The authors argued that exponential progress in computing was on the verge of delivering explosive advances in machine capabilities. Headline-grabbing breakthroughs in artificial intelligence (AI) seemed to support the idea that the robots would soon upend every workplace. Given that, on the eve of the pandemic, jobs were as plentiful as ever, you might now conclude that the warnings were overdone. But a number of new economics papers caution against complacency. The robots are indeed coming, they reckon-just a bit more slowly and stealthily than you might have expected.