Bayesian Estimation Of A Markov-switching Threshold Asymmetric Garch Model With Student-t Innovations

摘要

A Bayesian estimation of a regime-switching threshold asymmetric GARCH model is proposed. The specification is based on a Markov-switching model with Student-t innovations and K separate GJR(1,1) processes whose asymmetries are located at free non-positive threshold parameters. The model aims at determining whether or not: (ⅰ) structural breaks are present within the volatility dynamics; (ⅱ) asymmetries (leverage effects) are present, and are different between regimes and (ⅲ) the threshold parameters (locations of bad news) are similar between regimes. A novel MCMC scheme is proposed which allows for a fully automatic Bayesian estimation of the model. The presence of two distinct volatility regimes is shown in an empirical application to the Swiss Market Index log-returns. The posterior results indicate no differences with regards to the asymmetries and their thresholds when comparing highly volatile periods with the milder ones. Comparisons with a single-regime specification indicates a better in-sample fit and a better forecasting performance for the Markov-switching model.