Probabilistic Tsunami Loss Estimation Methodology: Stochastic Earthquake Scenario Approach

摘要

This study develops a probabilistic tsunami loss estimation methodology for enhancing community resilience against tsunami disasters. The method is based on novel stochastic earthquake source modeling and state-of-the-art tsunami fragility modeling. It facilitates the quantitative evaluation of tsunami loss for coastal community by accounting for uncertainties of earthquake occurrence and rupture characteristics. A case study is set up to illustrate an application of the developed method to the Sendai Plain area by focusing on possible tsunami events in the Tohoku region of Japan. The quantitative tsunami hazard as well as risk assessment results serve as effective means to make decisions regarding tsunami disaster risk reduction.