Impact of Climate Change on Food Crop Production in Congo Brazzaville

摘要

Agriculture is a key for economic transformation, food security, and nutrition. It generates foreign currency through the export process of agricultural products. It creates a source of employment to the population through farming, business and research activities therefore raising the standard of living of individuals. Agriculture, especially food crop production has always been at the mercy of unpredictable weather, but a rapidly changing climate is making agriculture an even more vulnerable enterprise. Food crop production de pends on a set of factors which contribute to the increase or decrease of its volume. These factors are essential to guarantee quality production, while oth ers are complementary and serve to improve yields in terms of quality and quantity. However, among these factors, others are difficult to control such as cli matic hazards. This study analyzes the impact of climate change on Congo agriculture using data from FAO STAT. Applying Autoregressive-Distributed Lag Regression or ARDL bounds testing approach for analysis of co-integration between the variables, the results reveal that, rainfall depreciates the production of food crops in the long run and has a negative effect on production in the short run; the cultivated area impacts positively food crop production in the long run, but has no effect in the short run. A better understanding of farmers’ perceptions of/and responses to climate change is important for de cision-makers to design more effective adaptation policies. In order to lowering the drastic impacts of climate change on crop productivity, the study recommends a development of advanced irrigation system, farmers’ access to meteorological information and an increase in area under cultivation.