Cognitive bias analysis of young novice drivers’ observation abilities—A questionnaire-based study

摘要

Observation ability, which is the basis of following decision-making and vehicle manipulation behaviour, is of great importance while driving. However, the subject self-cognition and objective assessment of driving ability are usually different, especially for the young novice drivers. In this paper, drivers’ observation abilities for both static traffic signs and markings and dynamic surrounding vehicles were investigated based on questionnaire data. Effects of gender and driving characteristics (driving year, driving frequency, driving time) on drivers’ observation abilities were verified by ANOVA analysis and structural equation model (SEM) from two aspects: drivers’ self-assessment scores (self-assessment) and mutual assessment scores (evaluated by others). Significant difference could be found between all the factors and drivers’ self-assessment scores, while only driving year had a significant effect on drivers’ mutual assessment scores. Besides, cognitive bias was found between all the driving year groups. It seemed that drivers with driving experience less than one year were always overconfident with their driving abilities. And drivers with driving experience more than three years usually gave the most conservative assessment scores for themselves and others. With more exposures to various traffic conditions, experienced drivers are more aware of their limitations on observing surrounding information, while young novice drivers still not realized their limitations on observing traffic signs and other vehicles in a right way.