Risk Assessment of a Cryogenic Globe Valve by Using Combined Group Decision and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

摘要

When using the risk priority number method to perform a criticality analysis of the failure modes of mechanical products, different subjective factors exist on the part of experts regarding the severity level (S), occurrence probability level (O), and failure modes. The estimation of the detection difficulty level (D) is different, which causes the problem of inaccurate evaluation of the criticality of failure modes. This study proposes a harm analysis method that combines group decision-making and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The similarity and difference between an individual expert and the group are used in group decision-making to assign the weight of the expert, thus reducing the influence of subjective factors on the evaluation results. On the basis of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the weight of three risk elements (S, O, and D) is determined, and a hazard ranking of the interval obtained by group decision-making is performed. The CA (criticality analysis) improvement method is used to analyze the hazard posed by low-temperature shut-off valves. Results indicate that this method can effectively assess the weak links of the low-temperature shut-off valves and improve the accuracy of the hazard evaluation in comparison with the risk priority coefficient method.