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首页> 外文期刊>Mathematical Problems in Engineering: Theory, Methods and Applications >Household Electricity Load Forecasting Based on Multitask Convolutional Neural Network with Profile Encoding
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Household Electricity Load Forecasting Based on Multitask Convolutional Neural Network with Profile Encoding

机译:基于多任务卷积神经网络的家庭电力负荷预测

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摘要

Household load forecasting provides great challenges as a result of high uncertainty in individual consumption of load profile. Traditional models based on machine learning tried to explore uncertainty depending on clustering, spectral analysis, and sparse coding with hand craft features. Recently, deep learning skills like recurrent neural network attempt to learn the uncertainty with one-hot encoding which is too simple and not efficient. In this paper, for the first time, we proposed a multitask deep convolutional neural network for household load forecasting. The baseline of one branch is built on multiscale dilated convolutions for load forecasting. The other branch based on deep convolutional autoencoder is responsible for household profile encoding. In addition, an efficient encoding strategy for household profile is designed that serves a novel feature fusion mechanism integrated into forecasting branch. Our proposed network serves an end-to-end manner in training and inference process. Sufficient ablation studies were conducted to demonstrate effectiveness of innovations and great generalization in point and probabilistic load forecasting at household level, which provides a promising prospect in demand response.
机译:家庭负荷预测由于在载荷概况的个人消费中具有高不确定性,提供了极大的挑战。基于机器学习的传统模型试图根据聚类,光谱分析和手工艺特征的稀疏编码探讨不确定性。最近,深入学习技巧,如经常性的神经网络试图通过一个热编码来学习不确定性,这太简单而不高效。本文首次提出了一种用于家庭负荷预测的多任务深度卷积神经网络。一个分支的基线建立在MultiSscay扩张卷曲中,用于负载预测。基于深度卷积的AutoEncoder的另一个分支负责家庭简介编码。此外,为家庭简介进行有效的编码策略,用于提供集成到预测分支的新颖特征融合机制。我们所提出的网络在培训和推理过程中提供端到端的方式。进行了足够的消融研究,以证明在家庭水平的点和概率负荷预测中的创新和概率概括的有效性,这提供了需求响应的有希望的前景。

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