A Sustainable Economic System to Face the Fluctuation of Fruit Prices: Based on a Small-Region DSGE Model

摘要

This paper builds a new small-scale and regionalization DSGE model that focuses on the sustainable economic system, which was estimated by the Bayesian estimation method using Chinese annual data from 2004 to 2017 to analyze the effect of the fluctuation of fruit prices in Hainan. We find the fluctuation of increasing prices has a negative effect on fruit output. This results in a preference to loosen monetary policy to reduce this influence and then results in price inflation, which will lead to the increase in output and prices simultaneously. Based on our findings, we provide suggestions for policy maker such as the optimization of industrial structures and increased investment in the fruit industry, extending the fruit industry chain and establishing a multifruit industry sustainable economic system.