Modelling and planning urban mobility on long term by age-cohort model

摘要

The modelling and planning of urban mobility on long term is a very complex challenge. The principal sources for analysis of urban mobility are surveys made on particular period of time, usually every ten years. If there are minima two surveys carried out on different period it is possible to make a pseudo-longitudinal data using demographic variables as an age and generation. The temporal modifications of behaviour of population concerning the practice of urban daily mobility are possible to assess using a pseudo-longitudinal data. The decomposition of temporal effects into an effect of age and an effect of generation (cohort) makes possible to draw the sample profile during the life cycle and to estimate its temporal deformations. This is the origin of the “age-cohort” model to forecast the urban mobility on long term. The analysis and investigated data from three surveys of urban mobility are related to the urban area Lille in France.