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Research on the Impact of International Oil Prices on the Economy of Russia

机译:国际油价对俄罗斯经济影响的研究

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In the process of Russian economic development, the oil industry is one of the important pillar industries. More than 50% of the total revenue of the Russian government comes from the oil and gas industry. Oil and oil products exports account for about 56.9% of Russia’s total export[1]. So Russia’s economy is inextricably linked to oil prices. Rosneft’s role in budgetary revenue sources is growing. In the development of the world economy, the change of international oil price affects the development of the Russian economy. This paper reviews the relevant theories about the relationship between oil price and Russia’s economic growth. Besides, the short-term and long-term effects of oil price fluctuation on Russian economy are analyzed with Keynes’s income determination theory and “resource Curse” theory[2] respectively. In addition, the granger causality test is used to analyze the relationship between the fluctuation of oil price and the change of Russian GDP. The following conclusions are drawn from the analysis. Firstly, oil price rise is beneficial to Russian economic growth in the short term, but will hinder Russia’s economic long-term development. Secondly, the fluctuation of oil price is the granger cause of the change of Russian GDP. However, the change of Russian GDP is not the granger cause of the fluctuation of oil price.
机译:在俄罗斯经济发展的过程中,石油工业是重要的支柱产业之一。俄罗斯政府总收入的50%以上来自石油和天然气行业。石油和石油产品出口占俄罗斯总出口总量的56.9%[1]。因此,俄罗斯的经济与油价无可思议。 Rosneft在预算收入来源中的角色正在增长。在世界经济的发展中,国际油价的变化会影响俄罗斯经济的发展。本文评论了关于油价与俄罗斯经济增长之间关系的相关理论。此外,通过分别对凯恩斯的收入确定理论和“资源诅咒”理论[2]分析了俄罗斯经济对俄罗斯经济的短期和长期影响。此外,格兰杰因果试验用于分析油价波动与俄罗斯国内生产总值的变化之间的关系。从分析中得出了以下结论。首先,石油价格上涨对短期内有利于俄罗斯经济增长,但会阻碍俄罗斯的经济长期发展。其次,油价波动是俄罗斯国内生产总值变化的格兰杰。然而,俄罗斯国内生产总值的变化不是石油价格波动的格兰杰原因。

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