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首页> 外文期刊>Hydrology and Earth System Sciences >Stochastic generation of multi-site daily precipitation focusing on extreme events
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Stochastic generation of multi-site daily precipitation focusing on extreme events

机译:对极端事件的多站点每日降水量的随机发电

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Many multi-site stochastic models have been proposed for the generation of daily precipitation, but they generally focus on the reproduction of low to high precipitation amounts at the stations concerned. This paper proposes significant extensions to the multi-site daily precipitation model introduced by Wilks, with the aim of reproducing the statistical features of extremely rare events (in terms of frequency and magnitude) at different temporal and spatial scales. In particular, the first extended version integrates heavy-tailed distributions, spatial tail dependence, and temporal dependence in order to obtain a robust and appropriate representation of the most extreme precipitation fields. A second version enhances the first version using a disaggregation method. The performance of these models is compared at different temporal and spatial scales on a large region covering approximately half of Switzerland. While daily extremes are adequately reproduced at the stations by all models, including the benchmark Wilks version, extreme precipitation amounts at larger temporal scales (e.g., 3-day amounts) are clearly underestimated when temporal dependence is ignored.
机译:已经提出了许多多站点随机模型来产生日降水,但它们通常专注于有关地区的低降水量的繁殖。本文提出了威尔克推出的多站点日降水模型的重大延伸,目的是在不同时间和空间尺度下再现极少数事件(在频率和幅度方面)的统计特征。特别是,第一扩展版本集成了重尾分布,空间尾依赖性和时间依赖,以获得最极端降水场的稳健和适当的表示。第二个版本使用分解方法增强第一版本。在覆盖大约一半的瑞士覆盖大区域的不同时间和空间鳞片上比较了这些模型的性能。在每日极端的所有模型都充分地再现了所有模型,包括基准Wilks版本,在忽略时间依赖时明显低估了更大的时间尺度(例如,3天,3天的量)的极端降水量。

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