Extreme Rainfall Projections for Malaysia at the End of 21st Century Using the High Resolution Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model (NHRCM)

摘要

The Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model (NHRCM) was used in simulating the present and future rainfall climate over Malaysia under the RCP8.5 scenario in this study. Simulation and projection from 1979 to 2002 for present day and 2070 to 2100 for the end of century were conducted over the Malaysia. The 20 km resolution MRI-AGCM3.2 model simulation from Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) was used as boundary conditions. The objective of this study was to estimate the extreme rainfall projections in Malaysia at 5 km of resolution during the November to February period, representing the northeast monsoon season. Overall, the model was capable to simulate the historical rainfall climatology and distribution, but model tended to underestimate high rainfall frequency and mean rainfall intensity in Malaysia. However, compared with simulations at 25 km, added values have been shown at 5 km resolution. Based on the NHRCM05 simulations, a number of hotspots have been identified with significant projected increases up to 80% for the extreme rainfall indices (R20mm, RX1day, R95pTOT and R99pTOT), 30% increases in mean rainfall intensity (SDII) and 20% for consecutive dry days indices (CDD).