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Risk zoning of typhoon disasters in Zhejiang Province, China

机译:中国浙江省台风灾害风险分区

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In this paper, typhoon simply means tropical cyclone. As risk is future probability of hazard events, when estimated future probability is the same as historical probability for a specific period, we can understand risk by learning from past events. Based on precipitation and wind data over the mainland of China during 1980–2014 and disaster and social data at the county level in Zhejiang Province from 2004 to 2012, a study on risk zoning of typhoon disasters (typhoon disasters in this paper refer to affected population or direct economic losses caused by typhoons in Zhejiang Province) is carried out. Firstly, characteristics of typhoon disasters and factors causing typhoon disasters are analyzed. Secondly, an intensity index of factors causing typhoon disasters and a population vulnerability index are developed. Thirdly, combining the two indexes, a comprehensive risk index for typhoon disasters is obtained and used to zone areas of risk. The above analyses show that southeastern Zhejiang is the area most affected by typhoon disasters. The annual probability of the occurrence of typhoon rainstorms 50mm decreases from the southeast coast to inland areas, with a maximum in the boundary region between Fujian and Zhejiang, which has the highest risk of rainstorms. Southeastern Zhejiang and the boundary region between Zhejiang and Fujian provinces and the Hangzhou Bay area are most frequently affected by extreme typhoon winds and have the highest risk of wind damage. The population of southwestern Zhejiang is the most vulnerable to typhoons as a result of the relatively undeveloped economy, mountainous terrain and the high risk of geological disasters in this region. Vulnerability is lower in the cities due to better disaster prevention and reduction strategies and a more highly educated population. The southeast coastal areas face the highest risk of typhoon disasters, especially in the boundary region between Taizhou and Wenzhou cities. Although the inland mountainous areas are not directly affected by typhoons, they are in the medium-risk category for vulnerability.
机译:在本文中,台风只是意味着热带气旋。由于风险是危险事件的未来概率,当估计的未来概率与特定时期的历史概率相同时,我们可以通过从过去的事件中学习来了解风险。在1980 - 2014年中国内地的降水量和风数据,浙江省县级的灾害和社会数据从2004年到2012年,关于台风灾害的风险分区研究(本文中风灾害指的是受影响的人口或由浙江省台风造成的直接经济损失)进行。首先,分析了台风灾害的特点和导致台风灾害的因素。其次,开发了一种导致台风灾害的因素的强度指数和群体漏洞指数。第三,结合了两种指标,获得了台风灾害的全面风险指数,并用于区的风险区域。以上分析表明,浙江东南部是受台风灾害最大影响的地区。从东南海岸到内陆地区的大风暴雨发生的年度概率> 50毫米下降,福建和浙江之间的边界地区最大,具有最高的暴雨风险。浙江东南部和浙江和福建省之间的边界地区,杭州湾区最经常受到极端台风风的影响,具有最高风险的风损害。浙江西南部人口是由于经济,经济,山区地形,山区地形和该地区地质灾害的高风险而导致最容易受到脊柱的影响。由于更好的防灾和减少策略以及更受教育的人口,城市漏洞较低。东南沿海地区面临着台风灾害的最高风险,特别是在台州与温州市之间的边界地区。虽然内陆山区不受台风的直接影响,但它们处于脆弱性中的中等风险类别。

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