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Analysis of Cholera Epidemic Controlling Using Mathematical Modeling

机译:数学建模霍乱疫视控制分析

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The purpose of this study is to see whether it is possible to eradicate the disease theoretically using mathematical modeling with the aid of numerical simulation when disease occurs in a population by implementing adequate preventive measures. For this, we consider a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of cholera and its preventive measure as one cohort of individuals, namely, a protected cohort in addition to susceptible, infected, and recovered cohorts of individuals including the concentration of Vibrio cholerae in the contaminated aquatic reservoir with small modifications. We calculate the basic reproduction number, ?0, and investigate the existence and stability of equilibria. The model possessed forward bifurcation. Moreover, we compute the sensitivity indices of each parameter in relating to ?0 of the model. Numerical simulations are carried out to validate our theoretical results. The result indicates that the disease dies out in areas with adequate preventive measures and widespread and kills more people in areas with the inadequate preventive measures.
机译:本研究的目的是通过在通过实施充分的预防措施时,在大量疾病发生疾病时,通过数值模拟理论上可以使用数学建模来理解疾病。为此,我们考虑了霍乱传输动态的数学模型及其预防措施作为一种个体队列,即除易感,感染和回收的个体群体的受保护的队列,包括受污染的脉冲浓度的血管浓度的浓度水产水库具有小的修改。我们计算基本再现号码,?0,并调查均衡的存在和稳定性。该模型具有前向分叉。此外,我们计算与模型的0个参数的灵敏度指数。进行数值模拟以验证我们的理论结果。结果表明,这种疾病在具有足够的预防措施和普遍存在的地区死亡,并在采取不充分的预防措施地区杀死更多人。

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