Historical Heritage Factor in Evaluating Development Prospects of the Regional Multicultural Community

摘要

The investigation proposes a number of approaches to assessment of the factors of historical heritage in terms of their impact on quality of living and socio-economic development of a multicultural region. The monitoring variant and the complex of methods were substantiated to give predictive assessment of the prospects of socio-economic development of a region in the analysis of historical retrospective of its development. They are based on the analysis of the category of quality of life and represent the combination of logical modeling methods (including the construction of forecast scenarios), mathematical-statistical and expert judgments.In particular, the authors propose a modified index statistical method of monitoring and forecasting of the dynamics of the quality of life of a region, taking into account a social differentiation of its territory. The authors have elaborated the quality of life (dynamics) change indicators, considering a historical retrospective. These indicators form the basis for the identification and analysis of regional development scenario variants. The paper also presents an adaptable method of expert judgments based on a questionnaire for social and economic forecasting.The Republic of Tatarstan, being one of the most dynamic multicultural regions of Russia with rich historical and cultural heritage was selected as a base region. The paper presents a number of forecast scenarios of development of the region, based on the differentiation of the quality of life of regional community, and takes into account local areas of compact settlement of various ethnic groups.The comparative evaluation of these scenarios is provided.