Thought experiments in construction risk management: capacities and limits

摘要

The article considers the concept of the thought experiment in risk management and describes epistemic status of the “risk” notion as well as conditions for performing procedures that contribute to risk management in construction. The article shows the prognostic and evidential potentials of the thought experiment as the basics for estimating the tools for risk analysis. The article states that the concept of risk management referring more to the plan of representation, than to the plan of reality let us include the thought experiment into the range of tools of risk estimations. Basing on the examples of construction activities as a specific sphere of risk management, the article proves the need of usage the thought experiment in applied forecast disciplines such as risk management.