Negligible Risk for Epidemics after Geophysical Disasters

摘要

After geophysical disasters (i.e., earthquakes, volcaniceruptions, tsunamis), media reports almost always stressthe risk for epidemics; whether this risk is genuine hasbeen debated. We analyzed the medical literature and datafrom humanitarian agencies and the World HealthOrganization from 1985 to 2004. Of >600 geophysical dis-asters recorded, we found only 3 reported outbreaks relat-ed to these disasters: 1 of measles after the eruption ofPinatubo in Philippines, 1 of coccidioidomycosis after anearthquake in California, and 1 of Plasmodium vivax malar-ia in Costa Rica related to an earthquake and heavy rain-fall. Even though the humanitarian response may play arole in preventing epidemics, our results lend support to theepidemiologic evidence that short-term risk for epidemicsafter a geophysical disaster is very low