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Bowel disorders and its spatial trend in Manitoba, Canada

机译:加拿大曼尼托巴省的肠道疾病及其空间趋势

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Background Bowel disorders have destructive impacts on the patients social and mental aspects of life and can cause emotional distress. The risk of developing bowel incontinence also increases with age. The rate of incidence of inflammatory bowel disease in Manitoba, Canada, has been unusually raised. Therefore, it is important to identify trends in the incidence of bowel disorders that may suggest further epidemiological studies to identify risk factors and identify any changes in important factors. Methods An important part of spatial epidemiology is cluster detection as it has the potential to identify possible risk factors associated with disease, which in turn may lead to further investigations into the nature of diseases. To test for potential disease clusters many methods have been proposed. The focused detection methods including the circular spatial scan statistic (CSS), flexible spatial scan statistic (FSS), and Bayesian disease mapping (BYM) are among the most popular disease detection procedures. A frequentist approach based on maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) has been recently used to identify potential focused clusters as well. The aforementioned approaches are studied by analyzing a dataset of bowel disorders in the province of Manitoba, Canada, from 2001 to 2010. Results The CSS method identified less regions than the FSS method in the south part of the province as potential clusters. The same regions were identified by the BYM and MLE methods as being potential clusters of bowel disorders with a slightly different order of significance. Most of these regions were also detected by the CSS or FSS methods. Conclusions Overall, we recommend using the methods BYM and MLE for cluster detection with the similar population and structure of regions as in Manitoba. The potential clusters of bowel disorders are generally located in the southern part of the province including the eastern part of the city of Winnipeg. These results may represent real increases in bowel disorders or they may be an indication of other covariates that were not adjusted for in the model used here. Further investigation is needed to examine these findings, and also to explore the cause of these increases.
机译:背景肠道疾病对患者的生活和心理方面具有破坏性影响,并可能导致情绪困扰。肠道失禁的风险也随着年龄增长而增加。在加拿大曼尼托巴,炎症性肠病的发病率异常上升。因此,重要的是要确定肠病的发生趋势,这可能建议进一步的流行病学研究,以识别危险因素并确定重要因素的任何变化。方法空间流行病学的重要组成部分是聚类检测,因为它有可能识别与疾病相关的可能危险因素,进而可能导致对疾病性质的进一步调查。为了测试潜在的疾病群,已经提出了许多方法。重点检测方法包括圆形空间扫描统计量(CSS),灵活空间扫描统计量(FSS)和贝叶斯疾病映射(BYM),是最受欢迎的疾病检测程序之一。最近也使用了基于最大似然估计(MLE)的常客方法来识别潜在的关注集群。通过分析加拿大曼尼托巴省2001年至2010年的肠病数据集,对上述方法进行了研究。结果CSS方法比该省南部的FSS方法识别的潜在聚类区域更少。通过BYM和MLE方法将相同区域识别为肠道疾病的潜在簇,其重要性顺序略有不同。这些区域中的大多数也都通过CSS或FSS方法检测到。结论总的来说,我们建议使用BYM和MLE方法进行簇检测,其种群和区域结构与曼尼托巴相似。潜在的肠道疾病群通常位于该省的南部,包括温尼伯市的东部。这些结果可能代表肠道疾病的真正增加,或者可能表明此处使用的模型未对其他协变量进行调整。需要进一步调查以检查这些发现,并探讨这些增加的原因。

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