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Short-Term Reliability Evaluation of Transmission System Using Lightning Strike Probability Prediction

机译:基于雷击概率预测的输电系统短期可靠性评估

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摘要

The transmission lines are exposed to the atmosphere nature and will be affected by adverse weather such as lightning storm, so that it will affect the reliability of transmission system. This paper studies the fault probability model of transmission line during the lightning storm, and evaluates the short-term reliability of transmission system in the forecasting weather condition. Firstly, build the lightning strike fault probability model of the transmission line based on historical lightning record information, then calculate the lightning strike probability under the forecasting weather conditions, furthermore evaluate the reliability index of transmission system. Utilizing IEEE RTS-79 system to verify the validity of the proposed model and the results show that lightning has great negative influence on the transmission lines and the reliability of transmission system. The reliability evaluation model proposed in this paper can guide the short-term operation and online scheduling for transmission system operators.
机译:传输线暴露于大气中,会受到雷雨等不利天气的影响,从而影响传输系统的可靠性。本文研究了雷暴期间输电线路的故障概率模型,并评估了在天气预报条件下输电系统的短期可靠性。首先根据历史雷电记录信息建立输电线路的雷击故障概率模型,然后在天气预报条件下计算雷击概率,进而评估输电系统的可靠性指标。利用IEEE RTS-79系统验证了所提模型的有效性,结果表明,雷电对传输线和传输系统的可靠性有很大的负面影响。本文提出的可靠性评估模型可以指导输电系统运营商的短期运营和在线调度。

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