Development of a Foresight Incentive Algorithm and Its Application in Construction Conflicts

摘要

There often exist multiple equilibria in the algorithm results of metagame theory and conflict analysis, and some of the equilibria may be non-Pareto optimal or low stable. Thus, it is still a problem for decision-makers to choose among the equilibria. On the basis of the traditional metagame algorithm, this paper develops a new algorithm by taking ″foresight incentive″ into consideration, so as to obtain more terse and stable equilibria. The analysis steps of the foresight incentive algorithm include generating a route for each player in each scenario, identifying the check-point in each route, examining if each check-point is foresight incentive point, and analyzing the stability of each scenario for each player. Finally, through the case study of a real construction conflict, the effectiveness and superiority of the foresight incentive algorithm are verified.