The Territorial Foresight for the construction of shared visions and mechanisms to minimize social conflicts: The case of Latin America

摘要

Articulating visions of sustainable territorial development at the sub-national level is a challenge throughout the planet. In Latin America, due to the characteristics of its primary export-led economic model, the deficient practices of public administrations have generated failures to implement structural reforms, with this economic-social inequality, asymmetries of urban and rural development without a long-term vision.This article presents two results derived from a theoretical-practical debate: the first, a model to determine the cases in which the territorial foresight can be successfully applied as a mechanism of generation of shared visions and long-term sustainable development, recognizing the existence of the primary cognitive bias about the key actors; the second, is a formal proposal for the implementation of the territorial foresight for an active process of collective participation that ensures legitimacy and commitment.The first section presents the causal problems of the slow development of Latin America in the last 25 years and the critical aspects to achieving the expected improvements. Then, the role of territorial foresight to promote the sustainable development of a territory analyzing its potential and some identified problems. Finally, guidelines for a successful exercise with a long-term vision in Latin America are suggested.