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XBART: Accelerated Bayesian Additive Regression Trees

机译:XBART:加速贝叶斯加性回归树

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Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) (Chipman et. al., 2010) is a powerful predictive model that often outperforms alternative models at out-of-sample prediction. BART is especially well-suited to settings with unstructured predictor variables and substantial sources of unmeasured variation as is typical in the social, behavioral and health sciences. This paper develops a modified version of BART that is amenable to fast posterior estimation. We present a stochastic hill climbing algorithm that matches the remarkable predictive accuracy of previous BART implementations, but is many times faster and less memory intensive. Simulation studies show that the new method is comparable in computation time and more accurate at function estimation than both random forests and gradient boosting.
机译:贝叶斯加性回归树(BART)(Chipman等人,2010)是一种功能强大的预测模型,在样本外预测中通常优于替代模型。 BART特别适合于具有非结构化预测变量和大量无法测量变异的来源的设置,这在社会,行为和健康科学中很常见。本文开发了适用于快速后验估计的BART修改版。我们提出了一种随机爬山算法,该算法与以前的BART实现的卓越预测精度相匹配,但速度快了好几倍,并且占用的内存更少。仿真研究表明,与随机森林和梯度提升相比,该新方法在计算时间上可比,并且在函数估计上更准确。

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