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Global Dynamics of Infectious Disease with Arbitrary Distributed Infectious Period on Complex Networks

机译:复杂网络上具有任意分布传染期的传染病的全局动力学

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Most of the current epidemic models assume that the infectious period follows an exponential distribution. However, due to individual heterogeneity and epidemic diversity, these models fail to describe the distribution of infectious periods precisely. We establish a SIS epidemic model with multistaged progression of infectious periods on complex networks, which can be used to characterize arbitrary distributions of infectious periods of the individuals. By using mathematical analysis, the basic reproduction numberR0for the model is derived. We verify that theR0depends on the average distributions of infection periods for different types of infective individuals, which extend the general theory obtained from the single infectious period epidemic models. It is proved that ifR0<1, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable; otherwise the unique endemic equilibrium exists such that it is globally asymptotically attractive. Finally numerical simulations hold for the validity of our theoretical results is given.
机译:当前的大多数流行病模型都假设传染期遵循指数分布。但是,由于个体异质性和流行病多样性,这些模型无法准确描述传染期的分布。我们在复杂网络上建立了具有传染期多阶段进展的SIS流行病模型,可用于表征个体传染期的任意分布。通过数学分析,得出该模型的基本再现数R0。我们验证了R0依赖于不同类型感染个体的感染期平均分布,这扩展了从单个感染期流行病模型获得的一般理论。证明如果R0 <1,则无病平衡是全局渐近稳定的;否则,存在独特的地方均衡,从而使其在全局上渐近具有吸引力。最后数值模拟证明了我们理论结果的有效性。

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