System Dynamics Simulation of Large-Scale Generation System for Designing Wind Power Policy in China

摘要

This paper focuses on the impacts of renewable energy policy on a large-scale power generation system, including thermal power, hydropower, and wind power generation. As one of the most important clean energy, wind energy has been rapidly developed in the world. But in recent years there is a serious waste of wind power equipment and investment in China leading to many problems in the industry from wind power planning to its integration. One way overcoming the difficulty is to analyze the influence of wind power policy on a generation system. This paper builds a system dynamics (SD) model of energy generation to simulate the results of wind energy generation policies based on a complex system. And scenario analysis method is used to compare the effectiveness and efficiency of these policies. The case study shows that the combinations of lower portfolio goal and higher benchmark price and those of higher portfolio goal and lower benchmark price have large differences in both effectiveness and efficiency. On the other hand, the combinations of uniformly lower or higher portfolio goal and benchmark price have similar efficiency, but different effectiveness. Finally, an optimal policy combination can be chosen on the basis of policy analysis in the large-scale power system.