Application of a Standardized Precipitation Index for Meteorological Drought Analysis of the Semi-Arid Climate Influence in Minas Gerais, Brazil

摘要

In recent years, the Southeast region in Brazil has suffered from the effects of drought events. Analyzing the history of drought events is fundamental to establish potential risks of the occurrence of droughts in the future. One of the many ways to prevent substantial impacts and evaluate a drought risk assessment is through analysis of severity, duration and frequency characteristics of these events. In this context, the current study developed Severity-Duration-Frequency curves and derived an isohyetal map for the area influenced by the semi-arid climate in the state of Minas Gerais, through the analysis of 17 rainfall stations. The drought events identification and the analysis of its conditions were assessed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for a 12-month time scale. The SDF curves were developed using the minimum cumulative 12-month precipitation values fitted to the Gamma distribution for 1, 3, 6, 9 and 12-month drought durations. The computed SDF curves for each station were further regionalized in order to obtain a general result for the study area. It can be observed that for a return period of 100 years, the estimated cumulative 12-month precipitation varies from 353 mm in a 1-month drought duration to 458 mm in a 12-month drought duration. The derived isohyetal map provides a more accurate local application of the results.