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Data assimilation in integrated hydrological modelling in the presence of observation bias

机译:存在观测偏差的综合水文模拟中的数据同化

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The use of bias-aware Kalman filters for estimating and correcting observation bias in groundwater head observations is evaluated using both synthetic and real observations. In the synthetic test, groundwater head observations with a constant bias and unbiased stream discharge observations are assimilated in a catchment-scale integrated hydrological model with the aim of updating stream discharge and groundwater head, as well as several model parameters relating to both streamflow and groundwater modelling. The coloured noise Kalman filter?(ColKF) and the separate-bias Kalman filter?(SepKF) are tested and evaluated for correcting the observation biases. The study found that both methods were able to estimate most of the biases and that using any of the two bias estimation methods resulted in significant improvements over using a bias-unaware Kalman filter. While the convergence of the ColKF was significantly faster than the convergence of the SepKF, a much larger ensemble size was required as the estimation of biases would otherwise fail. Real observations of groundwater head and stream discharge were also assimilated, resulting in improved streamflow modelling in terms of an increased Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient while no clear improvement in groundwater head modelling was observed. Both the ColKF and the SepKF tended to underestimate the biases, which resulted in drifting model behaviour and sub-optimal parameter estimation, but both methods provided better state updating and parameter estimation than using a bias-unaware filter.
机译:通过综合观测和实际观测,评估了偏见感知卡尔曼滤波器在估计和校正地下水头观测中观测偏倚的情况。在综合测试中,在流域规模综合水文模型中将具有恒定偏差的地下水水头观测和无偏向的水流观测同化,以更新水流排放和地下水水头,以及与水流和地下水有关的几个模型参数造型。测试并评估了有色噪声卡尔曼滤波器(ColKF)和分离偏压卡尔曼滤波器(SepKF),以校正观测偏差。该研究发现,两种方法都能够估计大部分偏差,并且使用两种偏差估计方法中的任何一种都比使用无偏差的卡尔曼滤波器产生了显着的改进。尽管ColKF的收敛速度明显快于SepKF的收敛速度,但仍需要更大的整体大小,否则将无法估计偏差。地下水位和水流排放的真实观测也被同化了,由于增加了Nash-Sutcliffe系数,因此改进了水流模型,而地下水位模型没有明显改善。 ColKF和SepKF都倾向于低估偏差,这会导致模型行为漂移和次优参数估计,但是与使用无偏差滤波器相比,这两种方法都提供了更好的状态更新和参数估计。

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