Assessing water resources in China using PRECIS projections and a VIC model

摘要

Climate change is now a major environmental and developmentalissue, and one that will increase the challenge of sustainable waterresources management. In order to assess the implications of climate changefor water resources in China, we calibrated a Variable Infiltration Capacity(VIC) model with a resolution of 50×50 km2 using data from 125well-gauged catchments. Based on similarities in climate conditions, soiltexture and other variables, model parameters were transferred to otherareas not covered by the calibrated catchments. Taking runoff in the period1961–1990 as a baseline, we studied the impact of climate change on runoffunder three emissions scenarios, A2, B2 and A1B. Model findings indicatethat annual runoff over China as a whole will probably increase byapproximately 3–10% by 2050, but with quite uneven spatial and temporaldistribution. The prevailing pattern of "north dry and south wet" in Chinais likely to be exacerbated under global warming.