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Statistical modelling of the snow depth distribution in open alpine terrain

机译:开阔高山地形雪深分布的统计模型

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The spatial distribution of alpine snow covers is characterised by large variability. Taking this variability into account is important for many tasks including hydrology, glaciology, ecology or natural hazards. Statistical modelling is frequently applied to assess the spatial variability of the snow cover. For this study, we assembled seven data sets of high-resolution snow-depth measurements from different mountain regions around the world. All data were obtained from airborne laser scanning near the time of maximum seasonal snow accumulation. Topographic parameters were used to model the snow depth distribution on the catchment-scale by applying multiple linear regressions. We found that by averaging out the substantial spatial heterogeneity at the metre scales, i.e. individual drifts and aggregating snow accumulation at the landscape or hydrological response unit scale (cell size 400 m), that 30 to 91% of the snow depth variability can be explained by models that are calibrated to local conditions at the single study areas. As all sites were sparsely vegetated, only a few topographic variables were included as explanatory variables, including elevation, slope, the deviation of the aspect from north (northing), and a wind sheltering parameter. In most cases, elevation, slope and northing are very good predictors of snow distribution. A comparison of the models showed that importance of parameters and their coefficients differed among the catchments. A "global" model, combining all the data from all areas investigated, could only explain 23% of the variability. It appears that local statistical models cannot be transferred to different regions. However, models developed on one peak snow season are good predictors for other peak snow seasons.
机译:高山积雪的空间分布具有较大的变异性。对于许多任务,包括水文,冰川学,生态学或自然灾害,考虑到这一可变性很重要。统计建模经常用于评估积雪的空间变异性。在本研究中,我们收集了来自世界各地不同山区的七个高分辨率雪深测量数据集。所有数据均来自最大季节性积雪时间附近的机载激光扫描。地形参数用于通过应用多个线性回归对流域尺度上的积雪深度分布进行建模。我们发现,通过平均米级的空间异质性,即在景观或水文响应单位级(像元大小为400 m)的个体漂移和积雪的累积,可以解释30%至91%的积雪深度变异性通过在单个研究区域根据当地条件校准的模型。由于所有地点的植被都是稀疏的,因此仅包含了一些地形变量作为解释变量,包括海拔,坡度,坡向与北(北)的偏差以及风挡参数。在大多数情况下,海拔,坡度和北向是雪分布的很好的预测指标。对模型的比较表明,流域之间参数的重要性及其系数不同。一个“全局”模型,结合了来自所有调查领域的所有数据,只能解释23%的可变性。似乎无法将本地统计模型转移到不同区域。但是,在一个高峰雪季开发的模型可以很好地预测其他高峰雪季。

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