Water shortage is a limiting factor for agricultural production in China, and climate change will affect agricultural water use. Studying the effects of climate change on crop irrigation requirement (CIR) would help to tackle climate change, from both food security and sustainable water resource use perspectives. This paper applied SDSM (Statistical DownScaling Model) to simulate future meteorological parameters in the Hetao irrigation district (HID) in the time periods 2041–2070 and 2071–2099, and used the Penman–Monteith equation to calculate reference crop evapotranspiration (ET 0 ), which was further used to calculate crop evapotranspiration (ET c ) and crop water requirement (CWR). CWR and predicted future precipitation were used to calculate CIR. The results show that the climate in the HID will become warmer and wetter; ET 0 would would increase by 4% to 7%; ET c and CWR have the same trend as ET 0 , but different crops have different increase rates. CIR would increase because of the coefficient of the increase of CWR and the decrease of effective precipitation. Based on the current growing area, the CIR would increase by 198 × 10 6 to 242 × 10 6 m 3 by the year 2041–2070, and by 342 × 10 6 to 456 × 10 6 m 3 by the years 2071–2099 respectively. Future climate change will bring greater challenges to regional agricultural water use.
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机译：缺水是中国农业生产的限制因素，气候变化将影响农业用水。从粮食安全和可持续水资源利用的角度研究气候变化对作物灌溉需求（CIR）的影响将有助于应对气候变化。本文应用统计降尺度模型模拟了2041-2070年和2071-2099年河套灌区的未来气象参数，并使用Penman-Monteith方程计算参考作物的蒸散量（ET 0） ，该值进一步用于计算作物的蒸散量（ET c）和作物的需水量（CWR）。使用CWR和预测的未来降水量来计算CIR。结果表明，HID中的气候将变暖和湿润。 ET 0将增加4％至7％; ET c和CWR与ET 0趋势相同，但不同作物的增长率不同。由于CWR增加系数和有效降水减少系数，CIR会增加。根据当前的种植面积，到2041年至2070年，CIR将分别增加198×10 6到242×10 6 m 3，到2071年至2099年将分别增加342×10 6到456×10 6 m 3。 。未来的气候变化将给区域农业用水带来更大的挑战。
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