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An upper-bound estimate for the accuracy of glacier volumea??area scaling

机译:冰川体积面积换算精度的上限估计

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Volumea??area scaling is the most popular method for estimating the ice volume of large glacier samples. Here, a series of resampling experiments based on different sets of synthetic data is presented in order to derive an upper-bound estimate (i.e. a level achieved only within ideal conditions) for its accuracy. For real-world applications, a lower accuracy has to be expected. We also quantify the maximum accuracy expected when scaling is used for determining the glacier volume change, and area change of a given glacier population. A comprehensive set of measured glacier areas, volumes, area and volume changes is evaluated to investigate the impact of real-world data quality on the so-assessed accuracies. For populations larger than a few thousand glaciers, the total ice volume can be recovered within 30% if all data currently available worldwide are used for estimating the scaling parameters. Assuming no systematic bias in ice volume measurements, their uncertainty is of secondary importance. Knowing the individual areas of a glacier sample for two points in time allows recovering the corresponding ice volume change within 40% for populations larger than a few hundred glaciers, both for steady-state and transient geometries. If ice volume changes can be estimated without bias, glacier area changes derived from volumea??area scaling show similar uncertainties to those of the volume changes. This paper does not aim at making a final judgement on the suitability of volumea??area scaling as such, but provides the means for assessing the accuracy expected from its application.
机译:体积面积换算是估计大型冰川样本冰量的最流行方法。在此,提出了一系列基于不同组合成数据的重采样实验,以得出其准确性的上限估算值(即仅在理想条件下达到的水平)。对于实际应用,必须期望较低的精度。当定标用于确定给定冰川种群的冰川体积变化和面积变化时,我们还将量化预期的最大精度。评估了一套完整的测量的冰川面积,体积,面积和体积变化,以调查实际数据质量对如此评估的准确性的影响。对于超过几千个冰川的种群,如果使用全球目前可用的所有数据来估计比例参数,则总冰量可以在30%内恢复。假设在冰量测量中没有系统性偏差,则其不确定性具有次要重要性。知道冰川样本的两个时间点的单个区域,对于稳态和瞬态几何体都可以在大于几百个冰川的种群中将相应的冰量变化恢复到40%以内。如果可以估计冰量的变化而没有偏差,则由体积面积换算得到的冰川面积变化显示出与体积变化相似的不确定性。本文的目的并不是对体积区域缩放的适用性做出最终判断,而是提供一种评估从其应用中预期的准确性的方法。

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