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Strategic thinking in turbulent times

机译:动荡时代的战略思考

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摘要

The purpose of this paper is to present a structural analysis of strategic thinking spectrum in turbulent times. Business excellence cannot be achieved without a well-defined strategic thinking spectrum able to elaborate and implement strategies in a fast changeable and unpredictable business environment. Strategic thinking means to think for a desirable future which can be ahead 4-5 years of the present time and to make decisions to the best of our knowledge for that unknown business environment. Thus, the research question is: How can we conceive the spectrum of strategic thinking such that we shall be able to deal with a complex and unknown future in achieving a competitive advantage? The methodology used to answer this question is based on metaphorical thinking, and multidimensional analysis. I shall consider four main dimensions: time, complexity, uncertainty, and novelty. On each of these dimensions I shall analyze the known thinking models and their attributes with respect to request formulated in the research question. Then, I shall choose those thinking models that correspond to the future characteristics and integrate them in a continuous spectrum. On each dimension I shall consider three basic thinking models. On the time dimension they are: inertial, dynamic and entropic thinking. On the complexity dimension they are: linear, nonlinear and systemic thinking. On the uncertainty dimension they are: deterministic, probabilistic and chaotic thinking. Finally, on the novelty dimension we have: template, intelligent and creative thinking. Considering all requirements for the unknown future, we conclude that strategic thinking spectrum should contain: entropic, nonlinear and systemic, probabilistic and chaotic, intelligent and creative thinking models. Such a spectrum increases the capacity of our understanding and as a consequence it enhances the capability of making adequate decisions in conditions of complexity and uncertainty.
机译:本文的目的是对动荡时期的战略思维范围进行结构分析。如果没有能够在快速变化和不可预测的业务环境中阐述和实施策略的明确定义的战略思维范围,就无法实现卓越的业务。战略思考意味着思考一个可以在当前时间4-5年之前实现的理想未来,并根据我们的知识为未知的商业环境做出决策。因此,研究问题是:我们如何构想战略思维的范围,以便我们能够应对复杂而未知的未来,从而获得竞争优势?回答这个问题的方法是基于隐喻思维和多维分析的。我将考虑四个主要方面:时间,复杂性,不确定性和新颖性。在这些维度的每一个方面,我将针对研究问题中提出的要求分析已知的思维模型及其属性。然后,我将选择与未来特征相对应的思维模型,并将其整合到一个连续的光谱中。在每个维度上,我将考虑三个基本的思维模型。在时间维度上,它们是:惯性,动态和熵思考。在复杂性方面,它们是:线性,非线性和系统思考。在不确定性方面,它们是:确定性,概率性和混乱性思维。最后,在新颖性方面,我们拥有:模板,智能和创造性思维。考虑到未知未来的所有要求,我们得出结论,战略思维范围应包含:熵,非线性和系统性,概率性和混沌性,智能性和创造性思维模型。这样的频谱增加了我们的理解能力,因此增强了在复杂性和不确定性条件下做出适当决策的能力。

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