Ecological niche modelling and predicted geographic distribution of Lutzomyia cruzi, vector of Leishmania infantum in South America

摘要

Author summary Leishmaniases are vector-borne diseases caused by Leishmania parasites which are transmitted to humans by the bites of infected female sand flies. The sand fly Lutzomyia cruzi is the vector of Leishmania infantum, the causative agent of visceral leishmaniasis (VL), in some specific areas of Brazil. The transmission of Leishmania species is climate-sensitive and involves complex ecological interactions between parasites, vectors and hosts. Considering that the vectors are strongly sensitive to climatic and environmental conditions, studies of their geographical distribution are important for understanding the eco-epidemiology of VL, as well as for the planning of disease control actions. The ecological niche of a species is a critical determinant of its distribution. Therefore, we conducted a study to evaluate and model the ecological niche of L. cruzi and predict susceptible areas to its occurrence in South America. The potential distribution area of L. cruzi according to the final ecological niche model spans Brazil and Bolivia in patches of suitable habitats inside climatically favourable areas. Cerrado and Pantanal biomes comprise the biggest portion of this suitable area which includes three Brazilians states, and some areas in Bolivia. Our findings reinforce the importance of conducting more ecological studies on sand fly fauna.