Characteristics of measles epidemics in China (1951-2004) and implications for elimination: A case study of three key locations

摘要

Author summary Despite high vaccine coverage, measles continues to cause large epidemics in China, a country currently supporting 18% of the world's population. To improve understanding of this phenomenon, here we develop a comprehensive model-inference system; using this system, we are able to simulate measles epidemic dynamics and estimate key epidemiological characteristics in three key locations in China during 1951 2004, a period that spans the pre-vaccine and modern mass-vaccination eras. These estimates include spatiotemporal variations in population susceptibility and the basic reproductive number (R0), an epidemiological parameter commonly used to inform target vaccination levels for measles elimination. Our findings reveal population and epidemiological characteristics crucial for understanding the current persistence of measles epidemics in China and for devising future elimination strategies.