...
首页> 外文期刊>PLoS Computational Biology >Dose-response relationships for environmentally mediated infectious disease transmission models
【24h】

Dose-response relationships for environmentally mediated infectious disease transmission models

机译:环境介导的传染病传播模型的剂量反应关系

获取原文
   

获取外文期刊封面封底 >>

       

摘要

Environmentally mediated infectious disease transmission models provide a mechanistic approach to examining environmental interventions for outbreaks, such as water treatment or surface decontamination. The shift from the classical SIR framework to one incorporating the environment requires codifying the relationship between exposure to environmental pathogens and infection, i.e. the dose–response relationship. Much of the work characterizing the functional forms of dose–response relationships has used statistical fit to experimental data. However, there has been little research examining the consequences of the choice of functional form in the context of transmission dynamics. To this end, we identify four properties of dose–response functions that should be considered when selecting a functional form: low-dose linearity, scalability, concavity, and whether it is a single-hit model. We find that i) middle- and high-dose data do not constrain the low-dose response, and different dose–response forms that are equally plausible given the data can lead to significant differences in simulated outbreak dynamics; ii) the choice of how to aggregate continuous exposure into discrete doses can impact the modeled force of infection; iii) low-dose linear, concave functions allow the basic reproduction number to control global dynamics; and iv) identifiability analysis offers a way to manage multiple sources of uncertainty and leverage environmental monitoring to make inference about infectivity. By applying an environmentally mediated infectious disease model to the 1993 Milwaukee Cryptosporidium outbreak, we demonstrate that environmental monitoring allows for inference regarding the infectivity of the pathogen and thus improves our ability to identify outbreak characteristics such as pathogen strain.
机译:由环境为媒介的传染病传播模型提供了一种机械方法来检查环境干预措施的爆发,例如水处理或表面净化。从经典的SIR框架向包含环境的框架转变,需要对暴露于环境病原体与感染之间的关系进行编码,即剂量-反应关系。表征剂量-反应关系的功能形式的许多工作都使用了对实验数据的统计拟合。然而,很少有研究在传动动力学的背景下研究功能形式选择的后果。为此,我们确定了选择功能形式时应考虑的剂量反应功能的四个属性:低剂量线性,可扩展性,凹度以及是否为单次点击模型。我们发现:i)中剂量和高剂量数据不会限制低剂量反应,并且给定数据的不同剂量反应形式同样合理,因为它们可能导致模拟爆发动力学的显着差异; ii)选择如何将连续暴露汇总为离散剂量会影响模拟感染力; iii)低剂量线性凹函数允许基本的复制数控制全局动态; iv)可识别性分析提供了一种方法来管理多种不确定性来源,并利用环境监测来推断传染性。通过将环境介导的传染病模型应用于1993年密尔沃基隐孢子虫暴发,我们证明了环境监测可以推断病原体的传染性,从而提高我们识别暴发特征(如病原体菌株)的能力。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱:kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备:11010802029741号 ICP备案号:京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有
  • 客服微信

  • 服务号