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Modelling environmentally-mediated infectious diseases of humans: transmission dynamics of schistosomiasis in China.

机译:环境传播媒介对人类传染病的建模:中国血吸虫病的传播动态。

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摘要

Macroparasites of humans are sensitive to a variety of environmental variables, including temperature, rainfall and hydrology, yet current comprehension of these relationships is limited. Given the incomplete mechanistic understanding of environment-disease interactions, mathematical models that describe them have seldom included the effects of time-varying environmental processes on transmission dynamics and where they have been included, simple generic, periodic functions are usually used. Few examples exist where seasonal forcing functions describe the actual processes underlying the environmental drivers of disease dynamics. Transmission of human schistosomes, which involves multiple environmental stages, offers a model for applying our understanding of the environmental determinants of the viability, longevity, infectivity and mobility of these stages to controlling disease in diverse environments. Here, a mathematical model of schistosomiasis transmission is presented which incorporates the effects of environmental variables on transmission. Model dynamics are explored and several key extensions to the model are proposed.
机译:人类的大寄生虫对各种环境变量敏感,包括温度,降雨和水文学,但目前对这些关系的理解受到限制。考虑到对环境-疾病相互作用的不完全机械理解,描述它们的数学模型很少包含时变环境过程对传输动力学的影响,并且在包含这些变量的地方,通常使用简单的通用周期性函数。在季节性强迫函数描述疾病动力学的环境驱动因素背后的实际过程的例子很少。人类血吸虫的传播涉及多个环境阶段,为应用我们对这些阶段的生存力,寿命,感染性和活动性的环境决定因素的理解提供了一个模型,以控制各种环境中的疾病。在这里,提出了血吸虫病传播的数学模型,其中包括了环境变量对传播的影响。探索模型动力学,并提出对该模型的几个关键扩展。

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