A Hybrid Fuzzy Inference System Based on Dispersion Model for Quantitative Environmental Health Impact Assessment of Urban Transportation Planning

摘要

Characterizing the spatial variation of traffic-related air pollution has been and is a long-standing challenge in quantitative environmental health impact assessment of urban transportation planning. Advanced approaches are required for modeling complex relationships among traffic, air pollution, and adverse health outcomes by considering uncertainties in the available data. A new hybrid fuzzy model is developed and implemented through hierarchical fuzzy inference system (HFIS). This model is integrated with a dispersion model in order to model the effect of transportation system on the PM 2.5 concentration. An improved health metric is developed as well based on a HFIS to model the impact of traffic-related PM 2.5 on health. Two solutions are applied to improve the performance of both the models: the topologies of HFISs are selected according to the problem and used variables, membership functions, and rule set are determined through learning in a simultaneous manner. The capabilities of this proposed approach is examined by assessing the impacts of three traffic scenarios involved in air pollution in the city of Isfahan, Iran, and the model accuracy compared to the results of available models from literature. The advantages here are modeling the spatial variation of PM 2.5 with high resolution, appropriate processing requirements, and considering the interaction between emissions and meteorological processes. These models are capable of using the available qualitative and uncertain data. These models are of appropriate accuracy, and can provide better understanding of the phenomena in addition to assess the impact of each parameter for the planners.