Factors Affecting Migration Intentions in Ecological Restoration Areas and Their Implications for the Sustainability of Ecological Migration Policy in Arid Northwest China

摘要

Ecological migration policy has been proposed and implemented as a means for depopulating ecological restoration areas in the arid Northwest China. Migration intention is critical to the effectiveness of ecological migration policy. However, studies on migration intention in relation to ecological migration policy in China remain scant. Thus this paper aims to investigate the rural residents’ migration intentions and their affecting factors under ecological migration policy in Minqin County, an ecological restoration area, located at the lower terminus of Shiyang River Basin in arid Northwest China. The data for this study come from a randomly sampled household questionnaire survey. Results from logistic regression modelling indicate that most residents do not intend to migrate, despite rigid eco-environmental conditions and governance polices threatening livelihood sustainability. In addition to demographic and socio-economic factors, the eco-environmental factors are also significantly correlated with the possibility of a resident intending to migrate. The implications of the significant independent variables for the sustainability of ecological migration policy are discussed. The paper concludes that ecological migration policies may ultimately be more sustainable when taking into account household interests within complex migration intention contexts, such as household livelihoods dynamics and environmental change.