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Bayes Prediction of Future Observables from Exponentiated Populations with Fixed and Random Sample Size

机译:具有固定样本数和随机样本量的指数种群的未来可观测物的贝叶斯预测

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Bayesian predictive probability density function is obtained when the underlying pop-ulation distribution is exponentiated and subjective prior is used. The corresponding predictive survival function is then obtained and used in constructing 100(1 – ?)% predictive interval, using one- and two- sample schemes when the size of the future sample is fixed and random. In the random case, the size of the future sample is assumed to follow the truncated Poisson distribution with parameter λ. Special attention is paid to the exponentiated Burr type XII population, from which the data are drawn. Two illustrative examples are given, one of which uses simulated data and the other uses data that represent the breaking strength of 64 single carbon fibers of length 10, found in Lawless [40].
机译:当基础人口分布被指数化并且使用主观先验时,获得贝叶斯预测概率密度函数。然后获得相应的预测生存函数,并在将来样本的大小固定且随机的情况下,使用一个和两个样本方案来构建100(1 –?)%的预测间隔。在随机情况下,假定未来样本的大小遵循参数为λ的截短泊松分布。要特别注意指数化的Burr XII种群,从中得出数据。给出了两个说明性的示例,其中一个使用模拟数据,另一个使用代表Lawless [40]中发现的长度为10的64条单根碳纤维的断裂强度的数据。

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