Equilibrium and non-equilibrium models of livestock population dynamics in pastoral Africa: their relevance to Arctic grazing systems

摘要

Equilibrium grazing systems are characterised by climatic stability that results in predictable primary production. Non-equilibrium grazing systems receive low and erratic rainfall that produces unpredictable fluctuations in forage supplies. In semi-arid Africa, these two types of environment present livestock owners with very different management problems. Identifying and maintaining optimal stocking rates is useful in equilibrium systems because livestock reproduce and produce at a rate determined by the availability of feed, which is an inverse function of stock density. The only problem is to determine what stocking rate is optimal. The correct stocking rate for a grazing system will vary depending on the production strategy and the social and economic circumstances of the rangeland user - there is no single, biologically predetermined optimum density. Variable rainfall complicates the picture in non-equilibrium systems. Set stocking rates of any kind have little value if fluctuation in rainfall has a stronger effect than animal numbers on the abundance of forage. More useful in such an environment is the ability to adjust stocking rates rapidly to track sudden changes in feed availability. In semi-arid Africa, the distinction between equilibrium and non-equilibrium systems hinges on the reliability of rainfall. In northern latitudes, at least three primary variables important for plant growth and the survival of herbivores must be considered: rainfall, snow cover and temperature. It is probably not useful to consider arctic grazing systems as equilibrium systems; on the other hand, the non-equilibrium models developed in hot semi-arid environments do not capture the range of complexity which may be an inherent feature of plant-herbivore dynamics on the mountain and tundra pastures where reindeer are herded or hunted.