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Re-evaluating safety risks of multifunctional dikes with a probabilistic risk framework

机译:用概率风险框架重新评估多功能堤防的安全风险

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摘要

It is not uncommon for a flood defence to be combinedwith other societal uses as a multifunctional flood defence, from housing inurban areas to nature conservation in rural areas. The assessment of thesafety of multifunctional flood defences is often done using conservativeestimates. This study synthesizes new probabilistic approaches to evaluatethe safety of multifunctional flood defences employed in the Netherlands andexplores the results of these approaches. In this paper a case representinga typical Dutch river dike combining a flood safety function with a natureand housing function is assessed by its probability of failure for multiplereinforcement strategies considering multiple relevant failure mechanisms.Results show how the conservative estimates of multifunctional flooddefences lead to a systematic underestimation of the reliability of thesedikes. Furthermore, in a probabilistic assessment uncertainties introducedby multifunctional elements affect the level of safety of the dikeproportional to the reliability of the dike itself. Hence, dikes with higherprotection levels are more suitable to be combined with potentially harmfuluses for safety, whereas dikes with low protection levels can benefit mostfrom uses that contribute to safety.
机译:从住宅区到农村地区的自然保护,将防洪与其他社会用途结合起来用作多功能防洪并不罕见。多功能洪水防御的安全性评估通常使用保守估计进行。这项研究综合了评估荷兰采用的多功能防洪安全性的新概率方法,并探讨了这些方法的结果。本文通过考虑多种相关失效机制的多重加固策略的失败概率,评估了代表典型荷兰河堤的洪水安全功能与自然和住房功能相结合的案例。结果表明,多功能洪水防御的保守估计如何导致系统低估这些堤防的可靠性。此外,在概率评估中,多功能元素引入的不确定性会影响堤防的安全水平,与堤防本身的可靠性成正比。因此,具有较高防护等级的堤坝更适合与可能危害安全的用途结合使用,而具有较低防护等级的堤坝可从有助于安全的用途中受益最多。

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