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Re-evaluating safety risks of multifunctional dikes with a probabilistic risk framework

机译:重新评估多功能堤坝的安全风险与概率风险框架

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摘要

It is not uncommon for a flood defence to be combinedwith other societal uses as a multifunctional flood defence, from housing inurban areas to nature conservation in rural areas. The assessment of thesafety of multifunctional flood defences is often done using conservativeestimates. This study synthesizes new probabilistic approaches to evaluatethe safety of multifunctional flood defences employed in the Netherlands andexplores the results of these approaches. In this paper a case representinga typical Dutch river dike combining a flood safety function with a natureand housing function is assessed by its probability of failure for multiplereinforcement strategies considering multiple relevant failure mechanisms.Results show how the conservative estimates of multifunctional flooddefences lead to a systematic underestimation of the reliability of thesedikes. Furthermore, in a probabilistic assessment uncertainties introducedby multifunctional elements affect the level of safety of the dikeproportional to the reliability of the dike itself. Hence, dikes with higherprotection levels are more suitable to be combined with potentially harmfuluses for safety, whereas dikes with low protection levels can benefit mostfrom uses that contribute to safety.
机译:其他社会用途作为多功能泛防防御,从房屋内部地区到农村地区的自然保护,这并不罕见。通常使用保守期阶段来进行对多功能泛洪抗冲并的评估。本研究综合了荷兰雇用的多功能洪水抗辩的评估概率探讨方法,并扩展了这些方法的结果。本文在考虑多个相关失败机制的多功能策略失败的可能性概率,评估了与Natureand住房功能结合洪水安全功能的案例。结果表明了多功能洪水的保守估计如何导致系统低估的保守估计如何导致系统低估思维的可靠性。此外,在概率评估的不确定性中,介绍多功能元素影响堤防的安全水平与堤防本身的可靠性。因此,具有更高的保护水平的堤坝更适合与潜在的伤害进行安全,而具有低保护水平的堤坝可以使最多可使用于安全的用途。

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