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Prognostication: Medicine’s Lost Art

机译:预后:医学上的失传

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With the recent diagnosis of glioblastoma in Senator Edward Kennedy, the press asked the "time" question: "How much time does he have left." As we know, most patients succumb within 12-18 months after diagnosis. 1 Estimating disease outcomes within a range can be done with some confidence. It is more difficult to predict the outcome for an individual patient. Medical prognostication, "a prediction of future medical outcomes of a treatment or a disease course based on medical knowledge," 2 has become something of a lost art. Prognosis, diagnosis, and therapeutics make up the main clinical skills in medical practice. Seventy-five years ago, when most effective medical therapies did not exist, the most skilled physicians were astute diagnosticians and frequent prognosticators. 3 Today, in the exam or intensive care room, discussion focuses on diagnos- tic and therapeutic options. Prognostication takes a back seat. Some of this relative neglect may come from the hope that prog- nosis will not be necessary, that cure will be the outcome. Medicine has delineated four major trajectories for the common causes of death.
机译:在爱德华·肯尼迪参议员最近诊断出胶质母细胞瘤后,媒体问了“时间”问题:“他还剩多少时间。”众所周知,大多数患者在诊断后12-18个月内屈服。 1在一定范围内估计疾病结局可以放心进行。预测单个患者的结局更加困难。医学预后,“基于医学知识对治疗或疾病历程的未来医学结果的预测” 2已经成为一门失传的技术。预后,诊断和治疗方法构成了医学实践中的主要临床技能。七十五年前,当不存在最有效的药物疗法时,最熟练的医生是机敏的诊断师和频繁的预后专家。 3今天,在检查或重症监护室中,讨论重点是诊断和治疗选择。预后不佳。这种相对疏忽的某些原因可能是希望,不需要预言,而治愈将是结果。医学已经为常见的死亡原因划定了四个主要轨迹。

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