Methodology for Designing Quantitative Roadmaps towards Low-Carbon Societies using a Backcasting Approach

摘要

Drastic socioeconomic transformation is expected in the course of realizing a low-carbon society in Asian countries, and it will be essential to establish quantitative roadmaps that indicate which options (tech- nologies and policies) need to be introduced or implemented, at what intensity, and by when. The backcasting approach can be an effective means of designing future roadmaps. This approach involves drawing up a target vision to be realized (or avoided), then formulating a roadmap and pathways to satisfy the future target condi- tions. In this paper, we propose a methodology to create quantitative roadmaps towards a low-carbon society in Asian countries based on the backcasting approach. Our methodology consists of two main steps: (1) formulation of a qualitative roadmap, and (2) design of a quantitative roadmap using a simulation model. In the first step, through an analysis of the barriers that need to be overcome towards realizing the target vision, the required options in the roadmap are specified and mutual relationships among the options are established in temporal order. In the second step, using the AIM/Backcasting Model, CO2 emission pathways, energy composition and investment profiles are quantitatively determined, and a Gantt chart can also be designed. Finally, in this paper we examine the effectiveness of this approach by describing some results of its application to Japan.