Machine Learning Methods for Seismic Hazards Forecast

摘要

In this paper, we suggest two machine learning methods for seismic hazard forecast. The first method is used for spatial forecasting of maximum possible earthquake magnitudes ( M m a x ), whereas the second is used for spatio-temporal forecasting of strong earthquakes. The first method, the method of approximation of interval expert estimates, is based on a regression approach in which values of M m a x at the points of the training sample are estimated by experts. The method allows one to formalize the knowledge of experts, to find the dependence of M m a x on the properties of the geological environment, and to construct a map of the spatial forecast. The second method, the method of minimum area of alarm, uses retrospective data to identify the alarm area in which the epicenters of strong (target) earthquakes are expected at a certain time interval. This method is the basis of an automatic web-based platform that systematically forecasts target earthquakes. The results of testing the approach to earthquake prediction in the Mediterranean and Californian regions are presented. For the tests, well known parameters of earthquake catalogs were used. The method showed a satisfactory forecast quality.