Application of Huff model in analysing market competition – example of shopping centres in the settlement of Zadar

摘要

The object of the research is market competition between the shopping centres in the settlement of Zadar. The research is based on the spatial data collected by using various methods and techniques, which were analysed by applying the tools of geographic information system (GIS) with respect to specific laws of market economy. A categorization of shopping centres was made in order to define a broad trade area where the competition between the centres was analysed. A demographic raster was used to define the density of potential consumers within a broad market area. The competition analysis included the determination of the centres’ market zones, the occurrence of potential market cannibalism and the definition of the dominant shopping centre according to a variable of choice probability. The market zones were determined based on the attribute of duration of drive (min). On-site research, calculation of non-linear distance and the analysis of shopping centres’ density, led to a conclusion that market cannibalism occurs between the centres. For the purpose of predicting market dominance, Huff model was used to calculate average values of preference of centres within the zones of overlapping and the broad trade area. The results of Huff model confirm the market reality that a larger number of consumers within the zones of overlapping and the broad trade area prefer a more attractive shopping centre. The difference in number of people that visit a more attractive shopping centre was quantified by overlapping the demographic raster and the Huff model.