Unconventional Oil Potential Tends to Change the World Oil Market

摘要

Falling unconventional oil production costs and a significant increase in its production (especially in the North America) can potentially impact the structure of the global oil trade. As a result, it will create additional risks for the producers of conventional oil, which production costs went up sharply in recent years. The aim of this study is the analysis and forecast of the development of unconventional oil production, its potential impact on the international oil market and the traditional exporting countries. The forecast for the future state of the oil industry was carried out with the help of a modeling complex SCANER, developed at the Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ERI RAS). The estimates of the future situation in the oil market were based on the forecasts of the economic development of the world’s main countries and regions, which then were compiled by the Russian Energy Agency in 2012. The modeling results showed that unconventional oil had a great development potential. According to the ERI RAS forecast, its production by 2035 could increase by almost fivefold as compared to 2010 (i. e., from 2.3 mb/d to 11.4 mb/d), around 90% of oil from unconventional sources will be produced in the North America. Such an increase in production may also lead to the situation, when the North America will reduce its dependence on imported oil. In the future, this will lead to a redistribution of oil trade flows in the world and will impose a negative impact on the producers in Europe, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the Asian-Pacific region (APR) and, to a lesser extent, in the Middle East.